Population trends are one of the biggest indicators of real estate values in the long term. If populations are rising, prices will go up, if populations are declining prices will go down. Q1 of 2025 marked the first net population decline in British Columbia since the late 90s. This really is the current headline. The first net out flow of residents can be felt in the rental and real estate markets.

I have a client that had their 2 bedroom Langley condo rented for $2300, and currently can’t find anyone for $2100 per month. A notable and very real drop in prices in the last year.

Home prices aren’t coming out unscathed either, and although also likely affected by the ongoing geopolitical uncertainties the reality is they are down some 5-10% year over year depending on product and location.

But what is the story moving forward? Aside from economic and geopolitical instabilities and strife, our population projections will be the single biggest indicator on the rental and real estate markets in the coming years.

And the long term picture still appears to be population growth. The Q1 2025 population decline was primarily driven by a large outflow of Non permanent Residents (Student Visas and Work Permits) which was fueled by a clamping down on predatory student visa programs taking advantage of pop up colleges. But 2024 saw a net population growth of over 50,000 people to Metro Vancouver

Moving forward net migration policy is aimed at around 55,000 new residents each year to Metro Vancouver. This is a slow down compared to the absurd post covid surge, but slightly above historical norms.

By best baseline projections the Metro Vancouver population is set to grow from 2.71 Million currently, to over 3.3 Million by 2030. This is still very substantial population growth.

The bottom line

I am a little surprised after going through these numbers and the future immigration policy decisions slated for the future. It would appear that although we hit a bit of a lull, Canadas immigration policy as a whole is still full speed ahead.

In the short term 2025-2027 interest rate fluctuations and geopolitical movements are going to see prices and demand having brief stints of life like trying to kick a flat soccer ball down the street. But ultimately nothing special is going to happen, either up or down.

In the medium term 2027-2030 we may see a different picture. Because unless housing completions increase dramatically—well above historic averages—Metro Vancouver will enter 2030 with a larger population, a deeper supply shortage, and upward pressure on prices.

The Fraser Valley real estate market is continuing its seasonal cooldown, offering great opportunities for buyers — but it’s clear that pricing is the key to successful sales right now.

Market Overview

📉 Sales: 1,190 homes sold in July, down slightly from June and 3.3% lower than July 2024
🏡 Active Listings: 10,650 properties — nearly 50% above the 10-year average
💰 Benchmark Prices:

• Detached: $1,451,100 (-5.1% YoY)

• Townhomes: $814,900 (-4.0% YoY)

• Condos: $519,300 (-5.8% YoY)

👉 The sales-to-active listings ratio is just 11%, keeping us firmly in a buyer’s market. Sellers need to price realistically, stage homes well, and be prepared for longer selling timelines — average time on market is 38 days.

Quick Market Snapshots by Community

🏡 Langley

• Detached: $1,598,600 (-2.2% YoY)

• Townhouse: $852,300 (-3.0% YoY)

• Apartment: $590,900 (-4.4% YoY)
  📊 Detached homes held steady, while condo prices saw the largest drop.

🏘️ Surrey (All Areas Combined)

• Detached: $1,561,700 (-6.1% YoY)

• Townhouse: $838,700 (-4.4% YoY)

• Apartment: $511,600 (-6.0% YoY)
  📉 Prices across all housing types have softened. Still a lot of inventory for buyers to choose from.

🌊 White Rock / South Surrey

• Detached: $1,837,300 (-7.2% YoY)

• Townhouse: $928,200 (-4.3% YoY)

• Apartment: $584,400 (-8.0% YoY)
  🏖️ Luxury market is adjusting — strong price declines here offer buying opportunities.

🛠️ Abbotsford

• Detached: $1,180,200 (-4.4% YoY)

• Townhouse: $653,400 (-2.0% YoY)

• Apartment: $424,400 (-5.3% YoY)
  📈 Detached homes are holding value better than condos. Still relatively affordable across the board.

🌲 Mission

• Detached: $1,033,100 (-1.5% YoY)

• Townhouse: $663,000 (-3.3% YoY)

• Apartment: $441,500 (-5.4% YoY)
  📍 One of the more stable markets in the Valley right now.

🌆 North Delta

• Detached: $1,333,600 (-9.5% YoY)

• Townhouse: $932,900 (-5.5% YoY)

• Apartment: $555,800 (-4.8% YoY)
  📉 North Delta saw the largest YoY drop in detached home prices in the Fraser Valley.

What This Means for Buyers & Sellers

🔑 Buyers: You have the upper hand. More selection, lower prices, and sellers motivated to negotiate.

📉 Sellers: It’s time to be strategic. Price accurately, present your home well, and be patient — properties are taking longer to sell.

📞 Thinking of buying or selling in Langley or the Fraser Valley? I’d love to help you navigate today’s market with confidence. Reach out anytime for expert, no-pressure advice.

Fraser Valley real estate update July 2025, Langley housing market July 2025, Surrey real estate prices July 2025, White Rock property values July 2025, Abbotsford home prices, buyer’s market Fraser Valley 2025

Based on the construction trends I see around Surrey and Langley primarily, but other areas of Greater Vancouver as well. It was somewhere 2012 - 2015 where they really changed how condos are built. I think they changed the building codes, which increased construction costs resulting in reduced individual unit size. The average 1 bedroom condo size in BC in 2005 was 700sqft. In 2025 its 560sqft.

Everything got tighter, smaller with a similar aesthetic and perhaps more importantly all the A1 locations are already taken. So anything being built now is in a B location at best, unless you want to wait 15 years for all the infrastructure and amenities to be built around it which by then it will be an older condo anyways and thus proving my point further.

Buy older and Renovate

The more experience I gain in my real estate career the less intimated I am by older buildings. I think after years of viewings, strata documents, listings and offers I can stand outside of a building about 10 feet away and tell you if its a lemon or not.

There are tons of great quality older buildings anywhere from the 80s-early 2000's that offer phenomenal stratas, long term value increase and far superior floorplans and views than anything being built today.

I lived in a newer building for a few years before moving to White Rock and I absolutely loved it there. So this is not to say there is particularly anything wrong with a newer condo, it all depends on your particular desires, lifestyle and needs.

What I am saying is that if you are shying away from older condos because you have concerns of long term value increase, maintenance costs or strata issues - don’t. Find an agent that knows how to weed out the lower quality stratas (not just me, honestly there are lots of us) and go shopping for an older condo where you can buy 1200sqft do a full custom renovation to perfectly suite you and still come in far less expensive than buying something new at a smaller square footage.

I do have a few tips for buying an older condo that can quite easily help you weed out any lemons and they are as follows:

#1 Strata Documents

You get 2 years of strata documents for any prospective purchase - read them - all of them. Every page. You will know if its something to avoid.

#2 Sound deadening

Admittedly all of the new building codes that made newer construction more expensive to build - thus smaller floorplans to save money, did have a substantial effect on sound deadening between walls and floors. That being said, a lot of older buildings were built with great sound deadening and insulations between units with that very notion in mind. So walk down the hallways around 6-7pm and check for sound deadening. In the builds that have poor sound insulation you will be able to hear people during those hours that everyone is home.

#3 Location is and always will be the biggest driving factor of value

Most people are concerned about the value increase of an older property (or lack thereof) and I think that is an issue for more rural areas or places like Edmonton where the market doesn’t really appreciate.

In places like Vancouver or Toronto, because we see so much value in the increase of our land that anything built on it is worth renovating, updating, maintaining and holding value. I don’t see any meaningful increase in newer properties above that of the increase of older properties. A rising tide lifts all boats.

Thinking of buying or selling real estate in the Fraser Valley? June's numbers from the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board are in — and they tell a clear story: we’re in a buyer’s market.

Despite lower prices and more inventory, many buyers remain cautious due to ongoing economic uncertainty. For those who are ready, this could be a rare window of opportunity.

Let’s break it down:

Fraser Valley at a Glance

• Sales: 1,195 homes sold in June, up 1% from May but down 9% compared to June 2024

• New Listings: 3,618 (down 10% from May)

• Active Listings: Almost 11,000 (up 30% from last year)

• Sales-to-Active Listings Ratio: 11% — indicating a buyer’s market

• Benchmark Prices (month-over-month changes):

  • Detached: ↓ 1.6% to $1,458,600

  • Townhouses: ↓ 1.0% to $824,400

  • Condos: ↓ 1.2% to $526,500

What This Means for Buyers & Sellers

With more homes on the market and prices gradually softening, buyers have negotiating power. If you're a first-time buyer or upsizing, this could be your chance to find a great deal.

Sellers should price strategically and work with a professional to maximize exposure and stand out in a competitive landscape.

Neighborhood Snapshot – June 2025

Here’s how key areas across the Fraser Valley are performing:

Langley Real Estate

• Detached: $1,600,800 ↓ 1.9%

• Townhomes: $859,700 ↓ 0.5%

• Condos: $599,800 ↓ 0.9%
  Langley remains a hot spot with strong inventory growth and moderate price softening. Detached sales rose 25% from May — a sign that motivated buyers are stepping in.

Surrey Real Estate (All Areas Combined)

• Detached: $1,573,300 ↓ 2.0%

• Townhomes: $852,100 ↓ 1.0%

• Condos: $513,800 ↓ 1.2%
  Surrey continues to offer a wide variety of housing options with steady activity and price dips across all segments.

Abbotsford Real Estate

• Detached: $1,190,600 ↓ 1.0%

• Townhomes: $655,300 ↓ 0.8%

• Condos: $441,600 ↑ 1.5%
  Condo prices in Abbotsford bucked the trend and rose month-over-month, showing signs of renewed demand in the entry-level segment.

Mission Real Estate

• Detached: $1,026,700 ↑ 0.7%

• Townhomes: $659,600 ↓ 2.4%

• Condos: $453,200 ↑ 0.1%
  Detached homes in Mission saw a small price increase, with overall inventory still relatively low compared to larger centres.

White Rock / South Surrey

• Detached: $1,846,800 ↓ 2.3%

• Townhomes: $935,000 ↓ 2.2%

• Condos: $589,300 ↓ 2.9%
  Luxury markets like White Rock saw more significant price declines. Higher-end buyers may find excellent value here this summer.

North Delta

• Detached: $1,323,600 ↓ 0.9%

• Townhomes: $921,900 ↓ 5.1%

• Condos: $558,000 ↓ 1.3%
  Townhomes in North Delta had one of the largest drops this month, opening a possible window for budget-conscious families.

Final Thoughts

With inventory building and prices gradually easing, June 2025 is shaping up to be a buyer-friendly market across the Fraser Valley. Whether you're looking to make a move or just curious about your neighborhood's value, staying informed is key.

Thinking about buying or selling? Contact me today for a personalized market evaluation and expert advice tailored to your goals.

An Ontario college just announced a 10,000 job lay off in what they called a monumental decline in student enrolment.

This is the symptom of a massive shift in our immigration policy, starting with student visas at the Federal level. I noted it in a previous blog but the puppy mill style colleges taking advantage of our loose PR policies are coming to an ungracious and well deserved end. But the rental and real estate markets will continue to stagnate along side, for quite some time.

This is not a wait for the market to ‘turn around’ next year situation, this is a fundamental policy shift that will stagnate our real estate and rental markets for years to come.

Immigration Reductions Are Just Getting Started

Immigration targets are going to continue to decline into 2026 and 2027. And the result will likely be a continuous net migration out of major markets like Vancouver and Toronto over the next few years.

On the Federal level, new Temporary resident targets in 2026 are going to be 25% less than they are in 2025.

Permanent resident targets are going to be reduced by 5% annually from current targets as well, which is down over 20% from 2023 levels.

All things considered, this is just a return to a normal and rather healthy intake of immigration over the next several years. Consider it a bit of a hangover to what was frankly a completely idiotic approach to immigration policy post-covid. Something I ranted about numerous times.

The result still tracks my future predictions. It’s going to be a stagnant-at-best real estate market until about 2029 when a fundamental supply shortage due to a cost-to-deliver housing crisis that is playing out currently.

Aggressive policy shifts could change the trajectory, such as reintroducing foreign buyers or restarting aggressive immigration targets. We may even see healthier markets where homes sell a bit faster and easier than they do now, but as for any noteworthy price increases, I can’t see it happening anytime soon.

Unrealistically priced homes make up 90% of the current inventory

We are currently trending at all time highs for inventory in the Fraser Valley. I am currently working with 3 buyers right now and can confirm that although some sellers are finally beginning to come to their senses, 90% of what is available on the market is stuck at yesterdays price.

If you are considering selling your home in the next little while the advice I can give you is simple. You are not competing against last years sale on your street. You are competing with this weeks price drop. With a rather substantial drop in HPI benchmark prices in a few key areas, it’s evident the market is not going to turn around into a sellers market anytime soon.

Surrey Leads The Way In Price Drops

An interesting phenomenon as well is that Surrey is seeing the most substantial price declines, while Vancouver, Abbotsford and most surrounding areas are virtually stagnant rather than seeing any real noteworthy decline in price.

Clayton Heights and West Newton lead the pack with 6-7% HPI Benchmark price declines. A drop we haven’t seen since the skyrocketing interest rates of 2022.

The Fraser Valley in general saw a 1% decline in benchmark pricing month over month.

With the lowest year to date sales since stats began recording in 2005, and inventory continuing to stack up on the market I predict the rest of the year will be more of the same. If geopolitical headwinds persist we will continue to see very slow price declines that one or two interest rate cuts won’t solve.

The June numbers will be released in the first few days of July and thats when the headlines will hit. Although I can’t speak for other real estate boards across Canada, I can confirm that in the first half of 2025 we will have the lowest property sales since recording started in 2005 in the Fraser Valley.

That’s lower than Covid lockdowns, or the great financial crisis (2009), or even 2013 ...I still don’t know what the heck happened in 2013 but wow it was a slow year in real estate.

2025 Sales January-June: ~5850

2020 Sales January-June: 6459

2009 Sales January-June: 6209

Nothing to do with interest rates

I don’t believe this has anything to do with interest rates. Not to say that lowering the interest rates wouldn’t spur things on a little bit but you can currently get fixed rates under 4% or very close to. Historically speaking thats a pretty good interest rate.

In 2023 we had quite a boom during the spring season, I recall getting 10+ offers on a few of my listings. Interest rates at that time were around 5% (if you were lucky). And with price declines over the past 2 years, homes are actually substantially more affordable then during this period.

I think at this point it’s driven completely by sentiment. Everybody thinks the market sucks (it does) and it’s just a snowball affect.

It makes me think of the coiled spring effect. Having the lowest first half sales in history with the explosive population growth we have had since 2009 or 2013, sets the stage for an aggressive rebound.

When that is, is anybody’s guess.

A lot of people were calling the continuation of the Liberal party under Mark Carney “Trudeau 2.0” but there appears to be at least one glaring contrast between the two Liberal leaders and that is immigration policy.

Although most of the effects had already started taking place prior to Mark Carneys premiership, it’s clear he has every intention to continue the scaling back of immigration through all channels whether that’s work permits, student visas or permanent resident applications.

The policy change has already had noticeable effects with a 3.3% decrease in rents year over year across Canada. And a further restrictive immigration policy could have lasting effects on the real estate market as well.

Population Growth Virtually Stagnant in Q1

Canada added just 20,107 people in the first quarter, essentially no percentage change to quarterly population growth, compared with an average of 0.3 per cent over the past decade, Statistics Canada data showed Wednesday. Excluding the pandemic, it’s the slowest quarterly rate since comparable records began in 1946.

The largest decrease in non-permanent residents came from foreign students, with most of the decline occurring in Ontario and British Columbia. The two provinces recorded the largest quarterly losses in population since data collection began in 1951.

Carney’s government has introduced a bill with tougher rules on asylum claims, in addition to limits already in place on foreign students and workers. Lawmakers are set to debate the legislation on Wednesday. It’s an apparent move to deter international students from abusing the system and brace for a possible surge of refugees fleeing US President Donald Trump’s crackdown.

In summary, the population growth gravy train has come to an end. Now realizing it’s detriments after 10 years of explosive immigration - any rational leadership would be quick to scale back. This will continue for quite some time and I believe Toronto and Vancouver are going to be the most affected areas... But at least soon I won’t have to wait 8 days for a doctors appointment... (hopefully)